To know where you are going, sometimes it is necessary to look to where you've been.
To answer the question posed in the title I decided to take a moment and look at the history of subscription based MMO's and see if it could give me any insight into what might happen next. The broke it down into four parts: Pioneers, MMO's hit maturity, the Next Generation, and today's games.
The Pioneers (1997 - 2001) - These games set the standard for all that followed. They proved that gamers would pay a monthly fee for a well crafted game and although they look ancient by today's standards, they were year's ahead of what has being produced by other game companies.
Ultima Online (1997) - This was an extension of the Ultima roleplaying game that began in the early 80s. Richard Garriott had a vision of taking his game online and launched it in 1997. It was the standard for a while and peaked at 250k in 2003. Slowly declined after that as new games were introduced and was at around 100k when it ended in 2009.
Everquest (1999) - Started in 1999 and improved on many of Ultima's features. It quickly took that games place at the top of the MMO food chain until it peaked at 550k in mid-2004. It quickly declined after the release of WoW/Everquest 2 to under 200k by the start of 2006 and then slowly deterioated to 100k in 2010 when it was cancelled.
MMO's hit maturity (2002 - 2007) - As the popularity of the pioneers fell, newcomers rose to take their place and many new innovative type of gameplay were introduced.
Final Fantasy XI (2002) - Launched in early 2002 and grew slowly until it hit 550k in mid 2004. Declined slightly after that but had surprising staying power with 500k subscribers as late as 2009. It declined quickly to 350k subscribers in 2010 and went free to play soon after.
Star Wars Galaxies (2003) - Launched in early 2003 it hit 300k a few months later then stayed at that level through mid 2005 when it started a steep decline and was close to 100k in 2006. It had further declines from there until it was closed in 2011.
Eve Online (2003) - Launched in 2003 this game had steady increases year by year until it grew to 375k in 2010 but has remained steady since.
City of Heroes (2004) - Launched in early 2004 this game quickly approached 175k then had a decline until the late 2005 City of Villians patch which re-energized the series and put it over 200k. After that it had steady declines until it hit 100k in 2010 when it went free to play.
Everquest 2 (2004) - Launched in late 2004 to replace Everquest, it quickly rose to 325k then fell to under 200k by the start of 2006. It had a devoted core but still slowly lost subscriptions and when it went free to play in 2010 it had fallen to about 120k.
World of Warcraft (2004) - Launched in late 2004, it surprised everyone and almost immediately took the #1 spot from Everquest. It hit 2,000k subscribers in 3 months, 3,500k in 6 months and 6,000k subscribers by 2006. Fueled by the release of the Burning Crusade Patch it rose to 8,000k by the end of 2007 and hit its max of 12,000k in late 2008 with the release of Wrath of the Lich King expansion. The numbers remained somewhat steady for through the first few months of the Cataclysm expansion in late 2010 when numbers started to fall and currently are estimated to hover just above 10,000k subscribers.
The Next Generation (2008 -2011) - Numerous developers see the success of World of Warcraft and enter the market with hopes of stealing market share. The trick was finding the combination of having enough differentiation to attract players while being similar enough so it is easy to play.
Age of Conan Online (2008) - Within months of its early 2008 release it spiked to 700k then rapidly fell to 100k by the end of the year. It stayed around 100k for the next 2 years as a subscription MMO before it went free to play.
Warhammer Online (2008) - Within months of its mid-2008 release it spiked to 800k then rapidly fell to 300k by the end of the year. It fell to 100k by the end of the next year and went to a free to play model.
Aion (2009) - Catered mostly to Asian tastes this game launched in early 2009 it rose to 4,000 by the mid year and has steadily declined until today where it has 2,400k subscribers.
Rift (2011) - Launched in early 2011 it quickly hit 600k then dropped quickly and is now around 250k.
MMO's hit a mid life crisis? (2012 - ) - No new arrival made a dent in WoWs dominance so another crop of games are launching to try to take its place before the next WoW expansion launches this fall. This is a tough time to enter the market as while total MMO subscriptions increased by an average of 25+% starting in 2004, in 2009 they suddenly stagnated. Subscriptions hit a high of over 22 million that year and have fallen slightly to just over 20 million today.
Star Wars: The Old Republic (2012) - Launched in late 2011 it rose to 1.7 subscriptions in the first quarter which is the last reported number. Patch 1.2 which hits in April will likely make or break this title.
The Secret World (est. June 2012) - The makers of Anarchy online are creating an MMO based on a blend elements of mythological and modern day civilizations, along with a mix of dark fantasy and the supernatural, and have no character classes. This game will feature a mix of urban legends, myths, and conspiracy theories and use 3 factions. This game looks interesting but really depends on the social features and quest design if it is to get a lot of market share.
TERA (est May 2012) - In TERA the world is under siege by evil gods, monsters, and beings from the underworld, and it’s up to the players to stand against their onslaught to save the world. The key attraction is true action combat which means fighting will be based on actual player skill. This means it should attract fans of first person shooters which dwarfs MMOs though that is partially because none of them currently charge a monthly fee. I've heard the gameplay is fantastic and if they include good quests and social tools it could be a sleeper hit.
The one thing that no one knows is whether MMO's have a future. For the last 15 years fans have shown they are willing to pay $15/month to play but with the advent of cheap IOS games along with the free to play MMO model are fans willing to continue this? The next year will go a long way to answering this question.
No comments:
Post a Comment